2008 Outlook: The Year After

No team in the history of Major League Baseball had ever blown a seven game lead in their division with seventeen games left in the regular season - until the 2007 New York Mets.

Tired of hearing that?  So is every other Mets fan.  The good news is, so are the Mets.

David Wright has said the Mets have a swagger this year that they lacked last year.  I disagree.  The Mets have shed the sense of entitlement that plagued them last year.  It was a given they were going to make the playoffs.  It was a given they were going to go a step further than they did in 2006.  The only question was who they would face in the World Series. 

The Mets were a complacent, aging team in 2007, and they broke down as a team in September.  Their primary failures were:

• The starting pitchers rarely lasted beyond the sixth inning. 
• The only starter who threw 200 innings, Tom Glavine, showed his age down the stretch, feeding batters a steady diet of spicy meatballs en route to a 6.10 ERA in September.  He also drove the final nail into the Mets' coffin, surrendering seven runs in 1/3 of an inning on the final day of the season.
• The bullpen played the role of firemen, not in the traditional sense, but more like the book-burners in Ray Bradbury's Farenheit 451.  Those close to the team say it was a result of burnout.
• Jose Reyes stopped hitting.  After having an offseason to think about it, this was probably more a result of crashing head-first into second and third base over a hundred times than being badly influenced by Rickey Henderson.  Though Henderson's absence this year does make you wonder.
• They relied on too many players in their late thirties and early forties during the stretch run.

In light of these failures, The Mets had to do two things this offseason:

• Get younger
• Get a top-line starting pitcher

They accomplished both.  They got younger at catcher, in the starting rotation, and on the bench.  While at 31, Brian Schneider is no kid, he is younger than the suddenly injury-prone Paul Lo Duca.  Angel Pagan, Ruben Gotay, Ramon Castro, and Endy Chavez should all be big contributers this year off the bench.  And of course, Johan Santana is thirteen years younger than Tom Glavine.  And he's the best left handed starter in the game today.

The Mets picked up Santana for a package of good prospects, but players they could live without.  They managed to keep Mike Pelfrey and Fernando Martinez, who have both looked very promising this spring.  Santana will give the Mets innings, he'll give them wins, and he'll give the bullpen a break.

Jose Reyes will rebound from his personal collapse.  If he reduces his stolen base attempts to pre-2007 levels, that should keep him fresh all year.  There is no question about his talent.  As Reyes goes, so go the Mets.

The question remaining for the Mets is one of injuries.  They are getting their starting lineup back, slowly but surely, and all but Moises Alou should be ready by Opening Day.  If Duaner Sanchez can return to full strength, the Mets' bullpen will have three (Sanchez, Heilman, and Feliciano) legitimate setup men for Billy Wagner.  That is a formidable weapon.  If Carlos Delgado can return to form, following his offseason surgery, the lineup will be as formidable.

In all, the 2008 Mets look better on paper than the 2007 team did last April.  In a couple of weeks, it will be time to show it on the field.