Ultimate Stat Projections!

There are a lot of websites out there that offer fantasy baseball fans, and fans of the game in general, projected statistics for their favorite players.  They use some kind of Einsteinian formula to predict what every player is going to do in 2008 – how many home runs, RBI, uniform (ahem) adjustments, etc.  But it seems that all of these projections are just slight modifications to the player’s stats the previous year.  It makes me wonder just how accurate these projections are.

Well, here at Mets Fan in Texas, we’ve devised our own state-of-the-art formula for making projections.  We pull the numbers out of our ***.

We’re going to put our formula to the test against ESPN’s fantasy projections, and at the end of the year, we’ll see who got it closer.  Here’s a list of some key Mets, and their projected (ahem) stats for the upcoming season

David Wright

ESPN: .319 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 28 SB

MFT: .316 BA, 34 HR, 114 RBI, 31 SB, 30,000 swooning thirteen year-old girls

Jose Reyes

ESPN: .285 BA, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 72 SB, 112 R.

MFT: .297 BA, 16 HR, 71RBI, 68 SB, 121 R, 451 sentences started with “I mean”

Johan Santana

ESPN: 22 W (!!), 269 K, 2.54 ERA

MFT: 18 W, 241 K, 2.95 ERA, 2 new yachts, 1 golden idol built in his honor by Willie Randolph

Carlos Beltran

ESPN: .274 BA, 33 HR (didn’t he have 33 HR last year?), 108 RBI, 21 SB

MFT: .281 BA, 36 HR, 118 RBI, 23 SB, 36 times he refers to his bat as his “little friend”

Pedro Martinez

ESPN: 10 W, 161 K, 3.10 ERA

MFT: 14 W, 186 K, 3.89 ERA, 100 major leaguers frustrated that they didn’t even come close to an 86 MPH fastball

John Maine

ESPN: 13 W, 156 K, 4.18 ERA

MFT: 17 W, 205 K, 3.46 ERA, 12 times he’s mistaken for the GOP presidential nominee

Carlos Delgado

ESPN: .267 BA, 29 HR, 98 RBI

MFT: .263 BA, 26 HR, 88 RBI, 1 time he refuses to stand for the “Curly Shuffle” between innings

Oliver Perez

ESPN: 12 W, 170 K, 4.40 ERA

MFT: 12 W, 170 K, 4.40 ERA (Eh, it sounded about right)

Moises Alou

ESPN: .328 BA, 14 HR, 51 RBI

MFT: .304 BA, 17 HR, 62 RBI, 1 AARP membership, 2 blown quads, and 1 balky, um, groin

Orlando

Hernandez

ESPN: 9 W, 130 K, 4.14 ERA

MFT: 178 mentions of the word “bunion,” 78 mile an hour fastballs, and about 5 trips to the DL.

Ryan Church

ESPN: .274 BA, 18 HR, 78 RBI

MFT: .282 BA, 23 HR, 76 RBI, 1 sign in his locker that reads, “Know your role, vet!”

Billy Wagner

ESPN: 36 SV, 2.41 ERA

MFT: 40 SV, 2.93 ERA, 2 appearances before he abandons his new changeup for the eighth straight year.